Media: It’s about Iran and the Arabs… Mofaz: It’s about the Jews!

So, Benjamin Netanyahu and Shaul Mofaz reached an agreement that saved the country hundreds of millions of NIS, saved us all from a needless election campaign, and put us exactly where we would have been after the dust and election stickers were cleared (give or take a dozen or so coalition members and sans the new stock of celebrity politicians – but don’t you worry, they will be here soon enough).

What fascinates me in all this is not the fact that we are not going to elections. If you read what I posted Sunday and stated on the radio this week and last – THAT is no shocker. What is a shock and really fascinating is how little the media and pundits think of the all-new and powerful Mofaz. Fact is that they think so little of him that they are completely ignoring his entire statement in the Knesset from 02:30 this morning.

Big mistake.

Shaul Mofaz made it abundantly clear that his singular motivation, his overriding goal in making this deal with Netanyahu is election reform. All the rest is gravy. He repeated himself over and over and yet - nada! It’s all about Iran and the Arabs they continue to clamber and claim - and Mofaz says no! It’s all about the Jews! It’s about how decisions are made in the Jewish State!

Amazing!

I tend to believe the man. I served under him during Operation Defensive Shield ten years ago and learned that he is no dummy. He is also no political novice. He maneuvered cleverly for the past few years and ultimately took control of his party. Rather than crash and burn in a futile election cycle he made peace with his rival so that the two of them can figure out how to stay in power 18 months from now.

Mofaz listed the four major issues on the table right now and then, over and over, repeated and reiterated that election reform was job one! He went as far as to state that if that is all this coalition of 94 achieves in the next 18 months – it would still be worth it! He took no jobs; he asked for no positions; he didn’t even ask to get rid of Ehud Barak at this point. All he is looking for is a way to use the next 18 months to save his own political career via a new election system. Works for me said Bibi! Let’s give it a try!

Will they succeed? G-d only knows. But together they are much stronger than each of them on their own. Since no real issues separate the two, only political enmity and personal ego, they may find a key that works – or at least gives them both a better shot at keeping the rest of the pack at bay - on that agenda they can agree as well.

What leads me to this conclusion? Just listen to the man! He says so straight and honest and to the cameras. He explains this motivation in clear words that cannot be misinterpreted.

So why do the pundits and the media choose to ignore him? Because he pulled a fast one and did the unexpected – political pundits who make up much of our news cycle and information don’t like that. They don’t like surprises and they don’t like being woken up at 02:30 in the morning to be told that their headlines and their fancily concocted Op-Eds are no longer valid. It happened with the Netanyahu victory over Peres in 1996 and it happened again last night. The guys who were shown up in 1996 still use every waking moment to try and punish him for that.

Professor Amnon Rubinstein, former Minister of Education representing the fringe-left, anti-Zionist yet ultra-honest Meretz party, went to sleep early that night in 1996 and awoke to what he called “a nightmare.” Yet, honest man that he is, he is the only Israeli pundit to tell the people the truth this morning. In a guest blog post on the Hebrew Walla site Rubinstein calls the coalition “shaky” and “short-lived” - this blogger agrees on both counts. He also points out that the one bright and shiny spot in this agreement is the off-chance that they will in fact focus on what Mofaz said they will focus – election reform.

Also interesting to note who stopped the presses and who didn’t. Center-left leaning Yediot Achronot and center right-leaning Israel HaYom stopped the presses, trashed the old paper and produced a new one. Left-leaning Ma’ariv and the hard-left agenda setter Ha’aretz both chose to stick to the “Supreme Court evicts Jews” headline. On which side of the political fallout do each of these papers fall? Who stands to gain? Who stands to lose?

“All politics are local,” said the great US speaker Tip O'Neill. In Israel, since even G-d is a local call, all politics are actually party politics and all party politics boil down to personal politics

Watch this pair closely my friends. Some of us are not going to like what we see.

About the Author: IDF Lt. Col. (Res.) Mike Cohen, PhD is the editor of “Zionism, Post-Zionism & The Arab Problem” (Hebrew: 2011 Gefen Publishers, Jerusalem; English: 2012 Professors for A Safe Israel & Westbow Press) and the first “Traveling Scholar” appointed by Rabbi Shlomo Riskin for his Center for Jewish & Christian Understanding & Cooperation, a member of the Ohr Torah Stone Educational System in Efrat, Israel. His website is: drmikecohen.info

Elections in 2012? Not So Fast Jose…

YERUSHALAYIM, ISRAEL: Very few people know the real reason Israel jumped from preparations for another summer of disruptive street demonstrations by bored young people who want free housing in the center of Tel Aviv to mourning the prime minister’s father to a vicious election campaign all in less than 24 hours.

I for one am not convinced that we are in a true election cycle just yet and no – I’m not claiming to be one of those in the know.

What I am advocating is that we all take a deep breath and look reality in the face.

Many of the MK’s supposedly voting to go to elections will not be reelected. Many of those sitting in government will not be in the next government. Since we know that the majority (if not all) of the people in those seats care first and foremost for numero uno, why are they so willing to suddenly shorten their term in office? I contend that they are not doing this willingly – something else is motivating the move.

We have to take a good hard look at the goings on that started late last week and continue “with fervor” at this moment as the “campaign” kicks off.

There are a number of factors that may have caused the “need” for elections – some personal, some political, some visible and yet others less visible. More convincing, to my mind, are the reasons NOT to go to elections.

Let’s take a look at some arguments – shall we?

1. Several seemingly powerful people were looking at the upcoming summer and wondering where it was leading them on a personal and party level. To name but a few:

·         Avigdor Lieberman (Minister of Foreign Affairs, head of secular Zionist Yisrael Beiteinu party) is fearful that his indictment will be upheld and that he will have to face a trial on fraud and racketeering charges;

·         Eli Yishai (Minister of Interior Affairs, political leader of Sephardic religious Shas party) is spooked by the possibility of the return of Aryeh Deri, the powerful leader of Shas past who has completed his court-ordered political exile and is vying for a return to power;

·         Shaul Mofaz (leader of the opposition and the Kadima party, former Chief of Staff and Minister of Defense) is interested in solidifying his role at the head of Ariel Sharon’s creation (Kadima) and in “cleaning house” of any memories of Ehud Olmert and Tzippy Livni.

·         Ehud Barak, the defense minister and leader of the Atzmauth faction (with no party, or electoral power behind them) is holding on to a tenuous positions as the prime minister’s left-leaning fig-leaf and designated “settler” basher. 

2. Yair Lapid, the bright star of the moment, starts putting together his own political grouping, flirting with Tzippy Livni who, despite reports of her political demise, has yet to chirp her last political statement on the Israeli scene. Many truly powerful people, popular names in banking and industry are flirting with this new party as well (as we see by the way in every Israeli election cycle).

3. Former PM Ehud Olmert, former IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, former Mossad director Meir Dagan and former Shaback director Yuval Diskin among others yapping away in public, voicing their personal opinions on Iran and the need to stop the bomb. This new epidemic of “formers” taking to the microphone and the media shook many in the Israeli establishment and caused an uproar that called the current leadership into question. Elections allow these statements to be used and abused by friend and foe alike and people such as Mofaz did not want to get stuck holding the cup for all of them.

4. Mitt Romney solidifying his place as the GOP nominee for president means that the race is on domestically in the United States. If elections take place in Israel while the American campaign is at its peak the current administration will not have the time, resources or energy to get involved in internal Israeli affairs – as happened to Netanyahu last time he faced off against Barak in 1999 – when then president Clinton sent money and advisors to help the Labor leader unseat the Likud one.

5. The Knesset calendar which includes the expiration of Tal Law and the need to legislate a more just and equal system of responsibilities, the budget (always a hot ticket item), and the Supreme Court’s insistence that it alone will decide where and how Jews will live in Israel, created many cracks in the society – cracks that are broadened by an election cycle but can also be temporarily fixed by a new coalition agreement.

There are many more and I can go on for a while, but I will stop here as I think the point has been made: personal issues, legal issues, court issues, budget, legislation, party politics, US elections AND Iran, all make for a good reason to shake things up, find new partners and make new agreements.

BUT! And here is the big one – in Israel one does not have to go to elections in order to shake up the government infrastructure. As we saw when Barak was having internal problems as leader of Labor, all one has to do is “reshuffle” the seats, add some chairs, give more people a personal body guard, a bigger car, a budget and a title, and walla! We have a new coalition agreement and a new government.

Will some bolt if this is done – oh yes – no question there will be threats. But think of it this way – if Netanyahu trades up – say brings in Mofaz and his 28 seats – as a stay against a move by Lieberman (15 seats) or Shas (11 seats) – even if both bolt (which they won’t) – he still has a net gain of two, and less headache from a potentially strong opposition.

Livni has already quit the Knesset and by law has to be reelected to come back, Deri is not in until he finds (or founds) a political home and gets elected; Lapid is still an outsider along with his fancy partners at least until new elections are held; Lieberman is bringing in some heavy names such as Yair Shamir (son of former PM Yitzchak) and Ze’ev Jabotinsky (grandson of) to shore up his flank (and his party in case he has to resign); and Barak is political dust in the hands of Netanyahu. As Netanyahu learned this week – his biggest headache and gamble is within his own party ranks – all this does not add up to a PM who wants new elections.

I am not saying we are not going to elections – I am not saying we are. I am just saying – lets wait and see how the cards fall and (if and) when the election law is passed – then we can start the new party (or parties)…

My experienced political gut tells me we are in for a Netanyahu-Mofaz surprise…