I for one am not convinced that we are in a true
election cycle just yet and no – I’m not claiming to be one of those in the
know.
What I am advocating is that we all take a deep
breath and look reality in the face.
Many of the MK’s supposedly voting to go to
elections will not be reelected. Many of those sitting in government will not
be in the next government. Since we know that the majority (if not all) of the
people in those seats care first and foremost for numero uno, why are they so willing
to suddenly shorten their term in office? I contend that they are not doing
this willingly – something else is motivating the move.
We have to take a good hard look at the goings on
that started late last week and continue “with fervor” at this moment as the
“campaign” kicks off.
There are a number of factors that may have caused
the “need” for elections – some personal, some political, some visible and yet
others less visible. More convincing, to my mind, are the reasons NOT to go to
elections.
Let’s take a look at some arguments – shall we?
1. Several seemingly powerful people were looking
at the upcoming summer and wondering where it was leading them on a personal
and party level. To name but a few:
·
Avigdor
Lieberman (Minister of Foreign Affairs, head of secular Zionist Yisrael
Beiteinu party) is fearful that his indictment will be upheld and that he will
have to face a trial on fraud and racketeering charges;
·
Eli
Yishai (Minister of Interior Affairs, political leader of Sephardic religious
Shas party) is spooked by the possibility of the return of Aryeh Deri, the
powerful leader of Shas past who has completed his court-ordered political
exile and is vying for a return to power;
·
Shaul
Mofaz (leader of the opposition and the Kadima party, former Chief of Staff and
Minister of Defense) is interested in solidifying his role at the head of Ariel
Sharon’s creation (Kadima) and in “cleaning house” of any memories of Ehud
Olmert and Tzippy Livni.
·
Ehud
Barak, the defense minister and leader of the Atzmauth faction (with no party,
or electoral power behind them) is holding on to a tenuous positions as the
prime minister’s left-leaning fig-leaf and designated “settler” basher.
2. Yair Lapid, the bright star of the moment,
starts putting together his own political grouping, flirting with Tzippy Livni
who, despite reports of her political demise, has yet to chirp her last
political statement on the Israeli scene. Many truly powerful people, popular
names in banking and industry are flirting with this new party as well (as we
see by the way in every Israeli election cycle).
3. Former PM Ehud Olmert, former IDF Chief of
Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, former Mossad director Meir Dagan and former Shaback
director Yuval Diskin among others yapping away in public, voicing their
personal opinions on Iran
4. Mitt Romney solidifying his place as the GOP
nominee for president means that the race is on domestically in the United States
5. The Knesset calendar which includes the
expiration of Tal Law and the need to legislate a more just and equal system of
responsibilities, the budget (always a hot ticket item), and the Supreme
Court’s insistence that it alone will decide where and how Jews will live in
Israel, created many cracks in the society – cracks that are broadened by an
election cycle but can also be temporarily fixed by a new coalition agreement.
There are many more and I can go on for a while,
but I will stop here as I think the point has been made: personal issues, legal
issues, court issues, budget, legislation, party politics, US elections AND
Iran, all make for a good reason to shake things up, find new partners and make
new agreements.
BUT! And here is the big one – in Israel
Will some bolt if this is done – oh yes – no
question there will be threats. But think of it this way – if Netanyahu trades
up – say brings in Mofaz and his 28 seats – as a stay against a move by
Lieberman (15 seats) or Shas (11 seats) – even if both bolt (which they won’t)
– he still has a net gain of two, and less headache from a potentially strong
opposition.
Livni has already quit the Knesset and by law has
to be reelected to come back, Deri is not in until he finds (or founds) a
political home and gets elected; Lapid is still an outsider along with his
fancy partners at least until new elections are held; Lieberman is bringing in
some heavy names such as Yair Shamir (son of former PM Yitzchak) and Ze’ev
Jabotinsky (grandson of) to shore up his flank (and his party in case he has to
resign); and Barak is political dust in the hands of Netanyahu. As Netanyahu
learned this week – his biggest headache and gamble is within his own party
ranks – all this does not add up to a PM who wants new elections.
I am not saying we are not going to elections – I
am not saying we are. I am just saying – lets wait and see how the cards fall
and (if and) when the election law is passed – then we can start the new party
(or parties)…
My experienced political gut tells me we are in
for a Netanyahu-Mofaz surprise…
